Gretchen's List: August 2022
The candidates are coming.
Dear Friends,
The Senate passed the largest climate investment in history! Kansans rejected an anti-abortion ballot measure by an 18-point margin! The FBI is raiding Mar-a-Lago! Jobs are up! Gas prices are down! Democrats are UP on the generic Congressional ballot! Do I feel broadly optimistic about the state of our country and the health of our democracy? No! But I do feel just a tiny bit better that this government is accomplishing a small part of what we all elected them to do — and I feel much more hopeful about our ability to keep doing some of that work after November.
Also: every candidate and their finance director is coming to town between now and the end of the September.
We are at a key moment in this cycle for political donors. If you haven’t given yet to the candidates of your choice, now is the time to give. Candidates will be solidifying their ad buys by early September, and will largely stop actively fundraising to focus solely on campaigning by October. Giving now will be significantly more impactful than giving six weeks from now.
In this very long email:
Should you give money to Liz Cheney?
Which Senate races actually need your money.
How to think about state legislatures and state supreme courts.
Upcoming events with candidates in the most competitive races in the country, including Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, Mandela Barnes, and four candidates in “toss up” Congressional races.
Quick links to give to priority races: US Senate; US House; Governors, Attorneys General, Secretaries of State
If you’re inclined to give and want to figure out where your money will go the furthest, or if you want specific recommendations for candidates that feeling inspiring to you, or if you want to find a champion for your most important issues, you know where to find me.
My best,
Gretchen
August Question: Should I give money to Liz Cheney?
No. She has a ton of money and she’s going to lose anyway. The things politicians buy with your money are ads to build name recognition (which she indisputably has), or ads to persuade voters (which this ad is not designed to do in a state where Trump won by 43 points). I am grateful for the Cheneys’ patriotism and willingness to stand up for our democracy. But Liz Cheney is a deeply conservative Republican, and your money won’t help her get reelected to the House. It will, however, make sure her Presidential campaign in 2024 launches with a solid war chest. (If you do want to support a democracy-first, never-Trump moderate candidate running in an uphill race, consider coming to meet Evan McMullin of Utah.)
U.S. Senate Update
Look, I try to talk about things other than the U.S. Senate, but then that’s really the only thing you all want to talk about, so here we are. In rough order of narrowness of margin (from most competitive to least), the most competitive Senate races in the country right now are:
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Mandela Barnes (WI)
Raphael Warnock (GA)
Maggie Hassan (NH)
Tim Ryan (OH)
Cheri Beasley (NC)
John Fetterman (PA)
Mark Kelly (AZ)
Based on the amounts of cash on hand and fundraising power of the each Democrat and their opponent, I think it’s most important to send money right now to Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin. Here’s why:
While Republicans have nominated an absolute moron and abuser in Georgia and a snake-oil salesman and grifter in Pennsylvania, they nominated the “correct” challenger to go against Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada. A former attorney general, Adam Laxalt has a record of winning statewide, a military background, a degree from Georgetown, and a freakish ability to appear moderate despite having Trump’s early endorsement. He is a strong challenger, and while Catherine is a rock star, I consider her to be the most vulnerable incumbent Senator right now — without Kelly and Warnock’s national fundraising base. She needs your money. (She’s coming to San Francisco on September 23rd; please see the events listed below to join us for lunch.)
Mandela Barnes just cleared the field in a protracted primary in Wisconsin, and while the others on this list have the advantage of incumbency or an open seat, Mandela is challenging Low IQ Caucus member* Ron Johnson. While Johnson is hugely unpopular, Mandela has had to spend money on his primary, and now needs to pivot to challenge him in the general. (He will be in San Francisco on August 31st; please join us for dinner per the events listed below.)
I am also keeping a close eye on Tim Ryan, who is currently leading in Ohio. I underestimated him in this race, and have been pleasantly surprised. You can give to any and all of these priority Senate races here, and I hope you will.
*Tommy Tuberville, Chair
Where to Give Now: State Governments & Supreme Courts
I’ve written a lot in past months about governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state, and their paramount importance this cycle (here and here if you want go back); you can give to any of these priority races here. If you are giving large amounts of money, give to governors (or senators); if you are giving medium amounts of money, look at AG, SoS, and underfunded U.S. House races; but if you’re trying to figure out how to make your $100 or $500 in giving for this cycle have the most impact possible, then state legislative and state court races are your sweet spot.
State Legislatures
State legislatures can be overwhelming. Which races are competitive? Who needs money? (I know that that’s why I’m here.) It’s a lot to tackle in a way that feels thoughtful. Here are my thoughts on strategies you can use to find the race you’ll be excited about.
Pick a state based on where you can to help move the needle. Arizona (40R-38D House; 16R-14D Senate), Michigan (58R-52D House; 20R-16D-2 vacant Senate), and Pennsylvania (122R-90D House; 27R-21D-1I Senate) probably represent the most flippable states (within a cycle or two) that will have an outsized impact on national politics. The links on each of those states goes to the statehouses’s Democratic legislative campaign committee’s list of targeted races — probably the best way to find a competitive race quickly and choose a candidate you want to get behind.
Pick an issue that you want to advance on the state level and find your candidates. For example, if you care deeply about abortion rights, I recommend the DLCC’s States to Save Roe Fund. You can also find the repro champions by checking out the State Innovation Exchange’s Reproductive Freedom Council — and then elevating and supporting those leaders. To find climate champions, go to Give Green’s directory and select “State House” and “State Senate” and identify priority candidates that way.
Give to the organizations that advance Democratic majorities beyond giving to individual candidates. If you don’t want to get too bogged down in supporting individual candidates, consider supporting Forward Majority, Sister District, and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, all of which are devoted to strategically supporting flippable state races.
Here’s what my state legislative giving this cycle includes: Forward Majority for the big picture; Represent PA to get more women in the Pennsylvania legislature and get it closer to flipping (so Republicans stop passing veto-proof anti-abortion state constitutional amendments at 11:30pm); A More Perfect Michigan PAC to flip the Michigan Senate (and support champion Mallory McMorrow while I’m doing it); and a handful of individual candidates (including flippable races in key states, and champions in states where I need their voices to be heard). It’s a mishmash, and that’s fine — with over 7,000 state legislative offices across the country, you figure out what works for you.
State Supreme Courts
The importance of state supreme courts is clearer than ever. Reproductive rights, fair districting, voting rights and election administration: all of these issues will be before courts in the coming years. Yet, these races rarely receive attention or support from national donors, despite their tremendous significance.
For this cycle, I’ve outlined some races below that are priorities to holding Democratic or liberal majorities on key courts. You can support all of these candidates here (except the Illinois candidates, as noted below).
Michigan’s current court is 4D-3R, with one Democrat and one Republican up this cycle. Kyra Harris Bolden is challenging the current Republican.
Ohio’s current court is 4R-3D (… including the governor’s son), with two Democratic and two Republican incumbents up this cycle, and one seat opening. Justice Jennifer Brunner is up for re-election, and Marilyn Zayas and Terri Jamison are running to join the court.
North Carolina’s court is 4D-3R right now, with one Democrat (and no Republicans) up this cycle and one Democrat retiring. Lucy Inman, who narrowly lost a race for the court last cycle, is running again.
Montana’s court is 5D-2R (lol, I know). Technically these justices are nonpartisan, but the breakdown reflects the governor that first appointed them to the court. We aren’t in jeopardy of losing the majority on the court this cycle, but I know Republicans will be targeting this court in future cycles if the majority gets narrower. Ingrid Gustafson needs support this cycle, as she is being attacked as “too liberal.”
Illinois’s court is currently 4D-3R. Because Illinois elects its justices by district, this election is a bit of a mess of moving parts, but the short version is that Democrats Mary O’Brien and Elizabeth Rochford are both running in swing districts, and control of the court hangs on at least one of them winning. Only Illinois residents are allowed to donate to their campaigns. If that’s you, please give to them directly.
For a very deep dive on state supreme courts, this piece from Bolts Magazine is excellent.
Upcoming Events
If you’re in San Francisco, please know this: every candidate is coming. They will all be here at some point in the next two months (this includes Palo Alto and the East Bay, too). Is there a candidate that you are interested in supporting — literally any competitive senatorial, congressional, or gubernatorial candidate — who isn’t listed below? Do you want details on their other events outside of San Francisco? Let me know and I can see when they’re in visiting the Bay Area ATM.
Thursday, August 18, 12pm. Please join a lunch reception for congressional candidate Tony Vargas of Nebraska at Manny’s in San Francisco. Tony is a State Senator, Presidential Scholar, first generation American and first generation college grad, and a former teacher. Just last week the Cook Political Report moved Tony’s race from Likely Republican to Toss Up! This race is a rare and crucial red-to-blue opportunity this cycle. RSVP here.
Thursday, August 18, 5:30pm. Please join Senate candidate Evan McMullin of Utah. Evan is running at as Independent to challenge Republican Mike Lee. I hate Mike Lee very much, and Evan’s brand of a never-Trump, democracy-first, moderate Independent candidate might create a model for how we hold off a Republican majority. Evan will not caucus with the Republicans; he will not support a nationwide abortion ban; he will support ongoing climate investments — and he is within 4 points of Lee in current polls. (We cannot always count on West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada sending Democrats to represent them in the Senate; we need to have options in more states.) If you’re intrigued, I encourage you to keep an open mind and come hear from Evan.
Wednesday, August 31, 6:30pm. I will be hosting an outdoors dinner for senate candidate Mandela Barnes of Wisconsin. I make the case for Mandela above, but I hope you will come allow him to make his own case. The son of a factory worker and a school teacher, a former state legislator and current Lieutenant Governor, he will be a champion for progressive values and is prepared to take on Ron Johnson. Please come meet Mandela.
Sunday, September 11, 6pm. I am so excited to host this group of candidates — they are truly some of my favorites, and I can’t wait for you to meet them. Please join me for an outdoor evening reception with four amazing women, all crucial to holding as many Democratic seats in the House as is possible:
Congresswoman Susan Wild (PA-07) is an attorney, mother, and one of my favorite legislators from my home state of Pennsylvania, who is running for re-election in the one of the swing state’s most competitive districts;
Congresswoman Sharice Davids (KS-03) is an attorney, mixed martial artist, and member of the Ho-Chunk Nation, and one of only two Native American women ever elected to Congress;
Congresswoman Kim Schrier (WA-08) is a pediatrician, mother, and Emerge Washington alumna, who was motivated to serve when she felt her patients weren’t being well-served by their former elected officials; and,
Dr. Yadira Caraveo (CO-08) is a pediatrician and state legislator in Colorado running for a newly redistricted congressional seat (currently rated D+1.2).
Please RSVP and contribute here, and please let me know if you’d like to cohost or help spread the word.
Tuesday, September 13, 5pm. Join Electing Women Bay Area to support Cheri Beasley of North Carolina. Cheri is a former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice, running for the open Senate seat and within just a few points of the Republican candidate. This race is our best chance to send a Black woman to the United States Senate this cycle. (There are currently none.) This event will be outside. Please RSVP here.
Friday, September 23, 12pm. Please join me and Electing Women Bay Area for outdoors lunch with Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada. As I detailed above, I believe this is the a prime race for investing, and this event will be Catherine’s last event in San Francisco this cycle. Please join us.
Donor, sociologist, researcher. Board member at WDN Action and Emerge America, and steering committee member at Electing Women Bay Area -- but all content here is mine alone and not on behalf of any organization or business. My goals are to help others find their networks and feel more comfortable and informed participating in the political giving space.
Currently reading: The Birth Certificate: An American History by Susan Pearson.
Currently writing: Relinquished: The American Mothers Behind Infant Adoption.