Gretchen's List: August 2024
Dear friends,
Well, it’s been a little while! When I last wrote I was just publishing my book and embarking on a book tour — and now six months have passed, we have a new nominee, the election is only 76 days away, and I’m writing this while en route to the DNC convention in Chicago. It’s been a real whirlwind of a year for me, and while it was nice to be able to focus on my professional work for a while, it’s also very nice to now be able to devote my concentration wholly to electing Kamala Harris, and making sure she has a House and Senate that will allow her to get work done.
I’ve received many requests in the last few weeks about where to give money, and I hope the recommendations below will be useful to you. One of the most important pieces of advice that I can give, though, is — wherever you decide to move money — that you move it soon. Money given before Labor Day is much more useful than money given after, because that’s when campaigns will finalize their television and digital ad buys. If you’re inclined to donate, take some time over the next few weeks to sit down, decide on your priorities, and get those contributions in, the sooner the better.
Here’s a run down of what’s below:
overview of abortion ballot initiatives;
suggestions for which competitive Senate and House races need support;
a quick introduction to Oath.Vote.
I also have many events coming between the end of August and the beginning of October, and I would love to have you join me. (And, yes, most of these events are after Labor Day! But you can still give now to join us then.) I’ll be hosting:
senate candidates Elissa Slotkin (Michigan) and Ruben Gallego (Arizona),
congressional candidate Sarah McBride (Delaware),
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and…
basically every woman running in a battleground congressional race in the country, joined by Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi.
Please join me at any level for these gatherings (all detailed below). Coming together in community is one of the most energizing things we can do right now.
Best,
Gretchen
Where to Give Now: Abortion Ballot Measures
I think one of the best investments that donors can make right now is in the five key abortion ballot initiatives in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, and Nevada. I say this not because abortion is my issue (it definitely is, though), but because abortion initiatives have proven to be a reliable way to drive Democratic turnout, increase enthusiasm in women and younger voter, and win elections. Thus, supporting these measures is both a means and an end: it will improve our chances in other elections, and protect abortion access at the same time.
Here’s where to give for each state, and the other opportunities at play.
Arizona for Abortion Access. Nested opportunities: US Senate (Gallego), US House (many races), Electoral College.
Floridians Protecting Freedom. Florida has a huge budget gap, and they are the second-largest abortion providing state in the country; passing this measure would make a huge different to access through the South. Nested opportunities: Longer-shot US Senate (Mucarsel-Powell) and Electoral College.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom. Another large budget gap, and a critical midwest access point. Nested opportunities: really long-shot US Senate (Kunce).
Protect Our Rights (Nebraska). Nested opportunities: US Senate (Osborn), Electoral College (yes, because Nebraska splits Electoral College votes by congressional district we have a good chance of winning one, which would be important in a close race).
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom. Nested opportunities: US Senate (Rosen), US House (Titus, Lee), Electoral College.
Any and all of these five measures would be a good use of resources right now. You can give to any and all five ballot initiatives here on ActBlue and here on Oath.Vote.
Where to Give Now (If You Really Want to Focus on Senate & House)
US Senate
The question I get most frequently is what we can expect in the senate races. Truthfully, the best we can reasonably hope for is a 50/50 senate. Joe Manchin’s retirement effectively cedes that seat to the Republicans, and we have very, very low chance of picking up a seat elsewhere on the map right now. To maintain fifty Democratic senators, we need to win all seven toss-up races listed below (in my rough estimate of competitiveness, from most vulnerable to least):
Jon Tester (Montana)
Elissa Slotkin (Michigan)
Ruben Gallego (Arizona)
Jacky Rosen (Nevada)
Sherrod Brown (Ohio)
Bob Casey (Pennsylvania)
Tammy Baldwin (Michigan)
However, just because Jon Tester is the most vulnerable does not necessarily mean that he needs money the most: he’s a very successful fundraiser and has a high level of resources on hand, and Montana isn’t a super expensive media market. Balancing out competitiveness of the race, expense of the race, and cash on hand, I think Ruben Gallego is the senate candidate most in need of money on this list, followed up Brown, Tester, Rosen, and Slotkin.
You can give to these senate candidates here on ActBlue, and here on Oath.Vote.
There are a few other senate races to keep an eye on: New Mexico, where Martin Heinrich is facing a credible and well-funded challenger, and Maryland, where Angela Alsobrooks is facing popular former governor Larry Hogan. The Democrats should win both of these races, but they cannot be taken for granted. The longer-shots for pick-ups are in Florida, where former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Rick Scott, and Texas, where Congressman Colin Allred is challenging Ted Cruz. I don’t think we can write these off entirely yet, but I am not especially hopeful at the moment.
US House of Representatives
Switching to the House of Representatives, I think we are much more likely to regain the majority, simply because there’s greater room for error given the sheer volume of competitive House races. Here are the top races I’d recommend giving to based on the same combination of competitiveness/expense/fundraising to date:
Kristen McDonald Rivet (Michigan)
Amish Shah (Arizona)
Janelle Bynum (Oregon)
Curtis Hertel (Michigan)
Rebecca Cooke (Wisconsin)
Yadira Caraveo (Colorado)
Gabe Vasquez (New Mexico)
Emilia Sykes (Ohio)
Marcy Kaptur (Ohio)
In selecting these races, I also considered nested opportunities (e.g., McDonald Rivet and Hertel are both in Michigan, where we need to make sure we’re running excellent ground game to turn out voters for the senate race and the electoral college). You’ll also see that none of these priorities are in the super competitive House races in New York and California — those races are very close and will be essential to taking back the House, but the Democratic donors bases in those states have made sure that those races are pretty well funded at this point.
You can give to the above candidates here on ActBlue and here on Oath.Vote.
How to Give: Oath.Vote
One new resource that I’m excited to start using is Oath.Vote, a new(ish) giving platform. (You’ll see that I’ve included Oath links above, in addition to ActBlue links.) Here’s why:
Oath doesn’t share your information with campaigns. That means you can give directly to campaigns, and you will not be bombarded with emails, texts, phone calls asking for more constantly.
Oath gives you metrics on the the impact of your giving. In fact, they combine all the factors that I try to use (cost of a race, competitiveness of a race, and cash advantage) into one “impact score” that lets you know how meaningful your donation will be in to the race.
For now, I still see reasons to use other giving platforms. Many donors (including me) like to use platforms like GiveGreen or WomenCount to link their giving to a certain cause or movement. Cmpaigns are still going to default to setting up event giving pages on ActBlue. Oath is still a new resource and building out the tools that other platforms have to create slates. But even given all this, I’m really excited about it’s potential, and if you’re looking for a way to contribute to campaigns that will give you more details on impact and won’t flood you with spam, check it out.
Upcoming Events
An Electing Women Bay Area reception with Michigan senate candidate Elissa Slotkin, on August 27th at 7pm. I have hosted Elissa more than any other candidate this cycle, but that’s only because I think she’s exceptional and because she’s running in one of the most competitive senate races in the country. This visit will be her last trip to the Bay Area before the election, and we want to make sure she has what she needs between now and November. RSVP here.
A reception with Delaware congressional candidate Sarah McBride on August 29th at 6:30pm. State Senator Sarah McBride is running for Delaware’s at-large congressional seat, and winning would make her the first transgender member of Congress. I have really enjoyed getting to know Sarah, and I know she has a long future of serving her state in Washington, DC — this is a great opportunity to get to know her now, in this early stage of her career. RSVP here.
A reception with Vote Mama PAC on September 12th at 6pm. I have been really impressed with Vote Mama, and organization and PAC that works to elect mothers of minor children to office at every level. Their work aims to build a coalition around childcare, education, paid family leave, and social safety nets drawing on motherhood as a source of collective power. We will be joined by congressional candidate and mom Laura Friedman and Vote Mama founder and director Liuba Grechen Shirley. RSVP here.
A reception and dinner with Arizona senate candidate Ruben Gallego on September 16th at 5:30/6:30pm. As I detail above, I believe this is the senate race most in need of your support. Ruben is a son of immigrants who was raised by a single mother in a working class family, who has gone on to serve as a US Marine and a current member of Congress. He’s running against MAGA-diehard and chronic election denier Kari Lake. Please come meet him and support this critical race. RSVP here.
A reception with Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi and frontline members Congresswomen Jahana Hayes (Connecticut), Mary Peltola (Alaska), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (Washington) and red-to-blue candidates Sue Altman (New Jersey), Christina Bohannan (Iowa), Janelle Bynum (Oregon), Ashley Ehasz (Pennsylvania), Kristen Engel (Arizona), Laura Gillen (New York), Kristen McDonald Rivet (Michigan), Missy Cotter Smasal (Virginia), Janelle Stelson (Pennsylvania), and Monica Tranel (Montana) on Sunday, September 29th at 5:30pm. Please join these stacked event with candidates in many of the most competitive House races in the country. You do not need to give to all candidates to join us — you can customize your giving to the candidates you prefer to support. RSVP here.
An evening reception with Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, in support of her Fight Like Hell federal PAC, on September 30th at 5:30pm. Governor Whitmer remains a rising and shining star in the Democratic party, and this gathering will support her efforts to raise money for federal efforts and organize beyond Michigan. RSVP here.
Donor, sociologist, researcher. Board member at Emerge America, steering committee member at Electing Women Bay Area, and cofounder of the Abortion Bridge Collaborative Fund -- but all content here is mine alone and not on behalf of any organization. My goals are to help others find their networks and feel more comfortable and informed participating in the political giving space.
Currently reading: Rooted: The American Legacy of Land Theft and the Modern Movement for Black Land Ownership by Brea Baker.