Gretchen's List: February 2024

Dear Friends,

The calendar has turned to 2024, so it’s time to get to work. Many folks have been asking me in the last few weeks where they should be focusing this cycle, and I am always happy to oblige. I think the asking itself is a good sign, and reflects that people are tuning in more to the rapidly approaching elections and figuring out what they can do.

I think the key to this cycle is being attuned to nested opportunities for Democratic turnout. For example, in Arizona, we need to win the state legislature and elect Ruben Gallego to the Senate and hold some competitive house seats and win the electoral college and support the statewide abortion ballot initiative. Investments in any of these areas will make it more likely we achieve all of them: they’ll boost turnout (even if enthusiasm for part of the ballot is lacking) and have mutually reinforcing messaging. Nearly every competitive electoral college state has a competitive senate race (except North Carolina — where they do have a competitive gubernatorial race — and Georgia), including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and, for optimistic days, Florida and Ohio.

I also know that many people on the left are — deservedly — deeply frustrated with many of our elected leaders. There are many ways to support these nested opportunities even if you are disinclined to give to certain candidates. I’ll be focusing more on how to impact election outcomes outside of supporting campaigns directly in the coming months.

This month I am going to focus on those senate races that I think most need your support (because — by far — I get asked about the senate the most), but with an eye towards what else needs to happen in each of those states. If you have questions about who/how best to support these other opportunities, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Best,
Gretchen

P.S. My book, Relinquished: The Politics of Adoption and the Privilege of American Motherhood, will be out at the end of February! You can pre-order a signed copy here, join me in San Francisco at the Commonwealth Club on February 20 or at Manny’s on February 27 — or I’ll be in Boston, Amherst, DC, Philly, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, and Austin over the next few months (and hopefully a few more!). Check out all the events here.

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Senate Overview 2024

Right now, the Senate is 51 Democrats/49 Republicans (this includes the three independents that caucus the the Democrats). With Joe Manchin’s retirement and the certainty of the West Virginia seat switching to Republican control, it will be very, very difficult to hold an outright majority in the Senate. We must, absolutely, hold every seat we currently have.

Many of the Senate races are still hard to assess right now, as we simply do not know how credible many of the Republican candidates will be. Most of my priorities here are determined entirely based on the overall electoral challenges of the state, and the length of incumbency for the sitting senator, and/or the strength of the challenger.

These races are not ranked in likelihood to win, or even competitiveness of the race. Instead, they are ranked where I think donors should most prioritize funding right now. The run-down is below, and here’s a slate where you can pick and choose those you want to support and give all at once.

1. Ruben Gallego (Arizona). This seat is currently held by Kyrsten Sinema; Gallego will be the Democratic nominee now that Sinema has left the Democratic party. Right now, the race is (theoretically) a three-way race between Gallego (D), Sinema (I), and mostly likely Kari Lake (R). In this three-way race, Sinema is a distant third; I believe she will decline to run. This puts Gallego v. MAGA-extremist/defeated gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in the general, which is a toss up. Until Sinema makes her intentions clear, Gallego does not have the benefit of the DSCC’s fundraising to support him in this critical race. I would encourage you to give to his primary race now, with the knowledge that if/once Sinema decides not to run, he will have many more pathways to fundraising available. Nested opportunities: flippable state legislature; competitive abortion ballot initiative; electoral college; must-hold House races.

2. Elissa Slotkin (Michigan). Slotkin is running for the open seat to replace retiring senator Debbie Stabenow. Right now, she is slightly up in all the polls, but Michigan remains a swing state, and Biden has taken a significant hit in Michigan polling in the last few months. Supporting Slotkin’s campaign will not only ensure her election, but help Biden’s odds in this must-win state, too. Plus, Elissa Slotkin remains one of the smartest legislators in our federal government. Nested opportunities: must-hold state legislature; electoral college; must-hold House races.

3. Jacky Rosen (Nevada). Her challenger will most likely be Army veteran Sam Brown. Nevada remains an extremely close state (it was the closest Senate race in 2022), and Rosen is just finishing her first term. There has been a huge amount of population turnover in Nevada, so she has a lot of constituents that have never voted for her before. Plus, frankly, Rosen does not have the high profile nor fundraising power of other incumbent senators that are up this cycle, so she will need the support of those paying attention. Nested opportunities: electoral college; must-hold House races.

4. Sherrod Brown (Ohio). This priority is fairly straight forward: Ohio is a swing state, and while Brown is popular and well-funded, this will be an expensive race. (If you’re in SF, consider joining me for a dinner with Brown and his wife, Connie Schulz.) Nested opportunities: electoral college; must-hold House races.

5. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Florida). This race is the longest shot that I would recommend, and I wrote more extensively about it in November. But, with Manchin’s retirement, I think this might be our best opportunity to pick up a Democratic Senate seat. Additionally, Florida will have an extremely popular abortion ballot measure in November, which will drive Democratic turnout and potentially put this race within reach. Florida is also an extremely expensive seat, so it’s worth making sure Mucarsel-Powell has enough to run an effective campaign. Nested opportunities: competitive abortion ballot initiative.

6. Jon Tester (Montana). Tester’s challenger could still credibly be one of four Republican candidates. Right now, he is polling slightly ahead of several of them in head-to-head polling, but Montana is difficult to predict (especially when we anticipate Trump will carry the state by such large margins at the top of the ticket). Thus, the race is effectively a toss-up. However, Tester is also a prolific fundraiser, and Montana is a comparatively cheap state to campaign in, so it’s unlikely that he will be underfunded by the end of the cycle. But, if you’re a fan of Tester’s — and who isn’t; he is hilarious — you could and should feel good about investing here. Nested opportunities: possible abortion ballot initiative.

Other possibly competitive Senate races to watch: Bob Casey (Pennsylvania) and Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin) will probably win, and Collin Allred (Texas) seems unlikely to, but worth keeping an eye on all three of these races to see how they evolve.

I also feel compelled to mention two senate seats that are safely Democratic, but have competitive primaries (don’t worry; neither is California — we’ll get to that after March 5th). In Maryland, we have the opportunity to elect County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and in New Jersey, Congressman Andy Kim. I have chosen to support them both. I believe this work isn’t just about electing Democrats, but electing the best possible Democrats that will serve the country well, and who will help us achieve a more reflective, inclusive democracy — one that is not driven by self-funding candidates or… straight up nepotism.

• Angela Alsobrooks (Maryland) has the opportunity to become only the fourth Black woman ever in the US Senate (hopefully serving concurrently with Lisa Blunt Rochester from Delaware, who we seem quite likely to elect this cycle). She currently serves at the County Executive for Prince George’s County, and has racked up endorsements from Governor Wes Moore, Senator Chris Van Hollen, half the Maryland Congressional delegation, and most statewide office holders. Yet, she trails in polling as her self-funding opponent puts tens of millions of dollars into this primary race.

• Andy Kim (New Jersey) is running for the seat currently held by likely-traitor Bob Menendez. (Menendez is — technically — still in this race, but not campaigning and clearly not competitive). Kim (a Korean American Rhodes scholar, former diplomat, and current congressman — you probably know him because he quite literally picked up trash in the Capitol rotunda on January 6th because he’s an incredible public servant who loves this country likely more than she deserves), was up twenty points (!!!!) in early polling. However, his primary competition is the governor’s wife which means she has consolidated endorsements early and is likely to appear at the top of the ballot (and, probably, favored to win this seat). Friends, I cannot. You know it takes a lot for me to go for the man when there’s a woman in the race. Yet, here I am. This article (“Tammy Murphy and the Nepo State”) sums up a lot of what’s happening: “Democrats across the state have been moaning about her undeserved advantages. But only anonymously. One elected official tells me, ‘Do I think she’s the best candidate? No. Do I think it’s a good look for New Jersey? No. If you’re asking me am I going to vote for her? The answer is no.’ This is a person who has publicly endorsed her.” Anyway, I am hosting Andy Kim this Friday; come meet him.

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Upcoming Events

February 9, 6pm. Please join me for a reception with Congressman Andy Kim (possibly the nicest member of Congress) and learn abou his campaign for U.S. Senate. I believe it matters which type of candidates we elect, even in seats that will likely be held by Democrats. Given the scandal and nepotism that has shaped this Senate race, I think it’s important to help make sure New Jersey is electing a true public servant. Come meet Andy — you’ll love him. Literally everyone does. RSVP here.

February 21, 6pm. Join me for dinner with Connie Schultz, and her lovely husband, US Senator Sherrod Brown to learn about his must-win swing state race and hear what’s happening in Ohio. RSVP here.

February 24, 2pm. I’m delighted to be on the host committee for this reception with Julie Lythcott-Haims to support her run for US Congress. Julie is a lawyer, professor, author, Palo Alto City councilmember, and the only woman running in a twelve-way primary for this open congressional seat. We will only send women like Julie to Washington if we actually fight to get them out of primaries, which is why I’ve chosen to invest in her race. RSVP here.

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Donor, sociologist, researcher. Board member at Emerge America, steering committee member at Electing Women Bay Area, and cofounder of the Abortion Bridge Collaborative Fund (part of the Women Donors Network) -- but all content here is mine alone and not on behalf of any organization. My goals are to help others find their networks and feel more comfortable and informed participating in the political giving space.

Currently reading: The Women Behind the New Deal: The Life and Legacy of Frances Perkins--Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, and the Minimum Wage by Kirstin Downey.

Preorder my book! Relinquished: The Politics of Adoption and the Privilege of American Motherhood, coming out February 27, 2024.