Dear Friends, So much has happened since my December newsletter! First there was Christmas (I got twelve books and this sweatshirt that says “Let Women Run Shit,” so basically everything on my list), then my entire family took turns getting COVID and we were sucked into a vortex of unproductivity, then I dragged all three children and our hard-earned antibodies on an impromptu trip to Disneyland to celebrate our newly invincible immune systems… and then January was over, and now I’m catching up on everything. Basically nothing went according to plan and I can’t say it was the
Actually Dems can still keep the House even if Biden's approval ratings are low for several reasons:
* Gerrymandering: As you note, Dems could gain 2-3 seats to start with. And there are now only a handful of swing districts that will each feature massive ad spending on both sides, which will largely cancel each other out.
* Candidates: candidates matter! Trump is forcing Republicans to nominate #BigLiars, who will not win swing votes.
* Turnout: in swing districts, what matters is whether Team Blue or Team Red turns out more votes. And turnout is never driven by House races - it's always about the top of the ticket, which are mostly Governors races. In the purple states, Team Blue will turnout to (re)elect Democratic governors.
* Doorknocks: In 2020, Democrats couldn't knock doors because of Covid. In 2022 - barring another Covid wave - Team Blue should be back on the doors.
So if Team Blue does the work, we can keep the House regardless of Biden's approval ratings.
Actually Dems can still keep the House even if Biden's approval ratings are low for several reasons:
* Gerrymandering: As you note, Dems could gain 2-3 seats to start with. And there are now only a handful of swing districts that will each feature massive ad spending on both sides, which will largely cancel each other out.
* Candidates: candidates matter! Trump is forcing Republicans to nominate #BigLiars, who will not win swing votes.
* Turnout: in swing districts, what matters is whether Team Blue or Team Red turns out more votes. And turnout is never driven by House races - it's always about the top of the ticket, which are mostly Governors races. In the purple states, Team Blue will turnout to (re)elect Democratic governors.
* Doorknocks: In 2020, Democrats couldn't knock doors because of Covid. In 2022 - barring another Covid wave - Team Blue should be back on the doors.
So if Team Blue does the work, we can keep the House regardless of Biden's approval ratings.