Actually Dems can still keep the House even if Biden's approval ratings are low for several reasons:

* Gerrymandering: As you note, Dems could gain 2-3 seats to start with. And there are now only a handful of swing districts that will each feature massive ad spending on both sides, which will largely cancel each other out.

* Candidates: candidates matter! Trump is forcing Republicans to nominate #BigLiars, who will not win swing votes.

* Turnout: in swing districts, what matters is whether Team Blue or Team Red turns out more votes. And turnout is never driven by House races - it's always about the top of the ticket, which are mostly Governors races. In the purple states, Team Blue will turnout to (re)elect Democratic governors.

* Doorknocks: In 2020, Democrats couldn't knock doors because of Covid. In 2022 - barring another Covid wave - Team Blue should be back on the doors.

So if Team Blue does the work, we can keep the House regardless of Biden's approval ratings.

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