Actually Dems can still keep the House even if Biden's approval ratings are low for several reasons:
* Gerrymandering: As you note, Dems could gain 2-3 seats to start with. And there are now only a handful of swing districts that will each feature massive ad spending on both sides, which will largely cancel each other out.
* Candidates: candidates matter! Trump is forcing Republicans to nominate #BigLiars, who will not win swing votes.
* Turnout: in swing districts, what matters is whether Team Blue or Team Red turns out more votes. And turnout is never driven by House races - it's always about the top of the ticket, which are mostly Governors races. In the purple states, Team Blue will turnout to (re)elect Democratic governors.
* Doorknocks: In 2020, Democrats couldn't knock doors because of Covid. In 2022 - barring another Covid wave - Team Blue should be back on the doors.
So if Team Blue does the work, we can keep the House regardless of Biden's approval ratings.
I think there are seats we can keep even if his approvals are low, but they will be harder than if his approvals were high. I don’t see how it doesn’t cost *some* seats in the House. It will be especially hard for the Democrats that are in reddish seats (Slotkin, Axne, Golden, Cartwright) to hold their seats in this scenario. Plus those in districts made redder by redistricting (Malinowski, Davids, Wexton, Luria, Lamb’s seat). In a tough year, we lose them all. Sure, we gain four new seats in NY, one in NM, we don’t have to fight as hard in NJ, and those we lose remain competitive for another cycle. But the majority is so narrow that everything needs to go *perfectly* to hold it. And the President’s approval rating — as an indicator of general annoyance/frustration with the current state of governance — is a big suggestion that things are not going perfectly.
Just looking at the top of the ticket in each of these states, a strong Democrat at the top (governor) will give a solid boost to Slotkin in MI, Golden in ME, Cartwright in PA, Davids in KS, Lamb's seat in PA. The absense of a strong statewide Democratic campaign will disadvantage Axne in IA, Malinowski in NJ, Wexton/Luria in VA.
After that I would look at the Republican candidates (post-primary) to see how extreme they are, and compare fundraising.
One more completely novel factor that is not being considered by handicappers is Trump's moves towards 2024, including the kind of rallies he held last week in Texas. Moreover we'll have the January 6 Committee report and likely criminal referrals for seditious conspiracy. Pundits assume 2022 will be a referendum on Biden, but it may also be a referendum on Trump 2024.
All this is fair -- but again, there is no evidence that a low Presidential approval rating is irrelevant in states with strong candidates in statewide races, and a great deal of evidence that it is meaningful. This is why many of the statewide candidates that you allude to (governor and senate) are very carefully negotiating their connection to Biden right now. Many of them have, frankly, said they are very concerned about it! And they should be. It makes their path much narrower.
right it's not irrelevant, but it is also not necessarily THE determining factor - as some handicappers would have us believe. also i don't think political science has caught up with post-Trump polarization, where the extreme rhetoric he uses to turn out his base simultaneously terrifies and mobilizes our base.
Actually Dems can still keep the House even if Biden's approval ratings are low for several reasons:
* Gerrymandering: As you note, Dems could gain 2-3 seats to start with. And there are now only a handful of swing districts that will each feature massive ad spending on both sides, which will largely cancel each other out.
* Candidates: candidates matter! Trump is forcing Republicans to nominate #BigLiars, who will not win swing votes.
* Turnout: in swing districts, what matters is whether Team Blue or Team Red turns out more votes. And turnout is never driven by House races - it's always about the top of the ticket, which are mostly Governors races. In the purple states, Team Blue will turnout to (re)elect Democratic governors.
* Doorknocks: In 2020, Democrats couldn't knock doors because of Covid. In 2022 - barring another Covid wave - Team Blue should be back on the doors.
So if Team Blue does the work, we can keep the House regardless of Biden's approval ratings.
I think there are seats we can keep even if his approvals are low, but they will be harder than if his approvals were high. I don’t see how it doesn’t cost *some* seats in the House. It will be especially hard for the Democrats that are in reddish seats (Slotkin, Axne, Golden, Cartwright) to hold their seats in this scenario. Plus those in districts made redder by redistricting (Malinowski, Davids, Wexton, Luria, Lamb’s seat). In a tough year, we lose them all. Sure, we gain four new seats in NY, one in NM, we don’t have to fight as hard in NJ, and those we lose remain competitive for another cycle. But the majority is so narrow that everything needs to go *perfectly* to hold it. And the President’s approval rating — as an indicator of general annoyance/frustration with the current state of governance — is a big suggestion that things are not going perfectly.
Just looking at the top of the ticket in each of these states, a strong Democrat at the top (governor) will give a solid boost to Slotkin in MI, Golden in ME, Cartwright in PA, Davids in KS, Lamb's seat in PA. The absense of a strong statewide Democratic campaign will disadvantage Axne in IA, Malinowski in NJ, Wexton/Luria in VA.
After that I would look at the Republican candidates (post-primary) to see how extreme they are, and compare fundraising.
One more completely novel factor that is not being considered by handicappers is Trump's moves towards 2024, including the kind of rallies he held last week in Texas. Moreover we'll have the January 6 Committee report and likely criminal referrals for seditious conspiracy. Pundits assume 2022 will be a referendum on Biden, but it may also be a referendum on Trump 2024.
All this is fair -- but again, there is no evidence that a low Presidential approval rating is irrelevant in states with strong candidates in statewide races, and a great deal of evidence that it is meaningful. This is why many of the statewide candidates that you allude to (governor and senate) are very carefully negotiating their connection to Biden right now. Many of them have, frankly, said they are very concerned about it! And they should be. It makes their path much narrower.
right it's not irrelevant, but it is also not necessarily THE determining factor - as some handicappers would have us believe. also i don't think political science has caught up with post-Trump polarization, where the extreme rhetoric he uses to turn out his base simultaneously terrifies and mobilizes our base.